khosq.com

The venue for Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan’s first official
visit abroad -- Moscow -- came as no surprise. But, in a potential sign
of a fresh Armenian foreign policy initiative, it was Turkey that stole
the show.

Sargsyan’s June 23-25 trip was designed to emphasize
the importance of Armenia’s "strategic partnership’ with Russia. There
were the usual touches -- meetings with Russian President Dmitry
Medvedev, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, and the chairs of both
chambers of parliament. He also placed a wreath at the Tomb of the
Unknown Soldier, and met with political experts and journalists.

And
there were the usual expressions of mutual support. In a June 24
statement, Medvedev described the partnership between Moscow and
Yerevan as critical to the entire South Caucasus. The two countries
have declared that they will coordinate their foreign policy to further
that relationship. "We are confident that close cooperation between
Russia and Armenia is a pledge for the stable … development of the
whole region," Medvedev said.

Medvedev also reiterated Russia’s
support for a solution to the conflict with Azerbaijan over the
breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region via existing negotiating mechanisms.

But
the three-day visit was not without surprises -- at least for
Armenians. On June 23, Sargsyan, who has requested that the "Sarkisian"
spelling of his last name be dropped, announced that he wants to
normalize relations with Turkey as quickly as possible. As a means to
that end, he has pledged to invite Turkish President Abdullah Gul to
Yerevan to watch the September 6 World Cup qualifying match between
Turkey and Armenia. The Armenian capital will be hosting the game.

Sargsyan’s
assertion that he would not object to a panel of Armenian-Turkish
experts examining the massive 1915 killing of ethnic Armenians by
Ottoman Turks was cause for further discussion among Armenians. A
condition, however, was put on the creation of such a panel -- the
reopening of Turkey’s border with Armenia. "Otherwise, [the panel] may
become a good way of abusing and prolonging the issue for [many]
years," PanArmenian.net reported Sargsyan as saying.

The issue
has long been a stumbling block for any attempt at normalizing
relations with Ankara. Former President Robert Kocharian had maintained
that the event -- termed genocide within Armenia -- was not subject to
debate.

One Yerevan expert, though, argues that Sargsyan’s move
was more aimed at the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe
(PACE) than at Turkey itself. "I believe Sargsyan was just trying to
get a beneficial vote, including by the Turkish delegates, for the PACE
resolution about Armenia expected in Strasbourg two days later,"
commented Alexsander Iskandarian, director of the Caucasus Institute.
The June 25 resolution gave the Armenian government until January 2009
to meet earlier demands for overtures to the opposition in the wake of
March 1 crackdown on protestors led by ex-President Levon
Ter-Petrosian. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Armenia’s
ruling coalition appears potentially split on the notion of an
Armenian-Turkish genocide investigation. In a June 25 story, the daily
newspaper Aravot quoted Vahan Hovahannisian, leader of the Armenian
Revolutionary Federation-Dashnaktsutiun’s parliamentary faction, as
saying that his party would organize a protest if Gul arrives in
Yerevan in September.

By comparison, problems with Russia appeared to receive far less official scrutiny.
No
progress was made in determining the price of Russian gas for Armenia
the coming year. Nor was mention made of Russia’s prospective role in
an Armenian project to refine Iranian crude oil. Apart from a pledge to
restore Armenia’s railway link with Russia, land transportation -- an
issue since the main Georgian-Russian border point closed in 2006 --
also escaped attention.

While most Armenian politicians dodged
debate about Armenia’s ties with Russia, pro-opposition media were
quick to express skepticism about the event.

Referring to
unnamed "sources close to the Kremlin," the daily Haykakan Zhamanak
claimed on June 25 that Medvedev had criticized Sargsyan’s efforts to
strengthen Armenia’s ties with the European Union and the North
Atlantic Treaty Organization as well as his alleged failure to
guarantee political stability within the country. The newspaper argued
that the lack of a response from Medvedev to an open invitation from
Sargsyan to visit Armenia hints that the Kremlin may not be as pleased
with Yerevan as the official bonhomie may suggest.

Officials
could not be reached for comment. But analyst Iskandarian believes
that, on the whole, the summit’s primary purpose was achieved: Sargsyan
and Medvedev have now "calibrated their watches," he said. "Both have
reached their goals."