Are we expected to believe that Georgia’s President Michael Sahakashvilli was not aware that Russia had tens of thousands troops and hundreds of tanks waiting in readiness for when he decided to unleash his recently amassed arsenal of modern weaponry on the unfortunate folk of South Ossetia? Are we expected to believe that Michael Sahakashvilli was ready to take on Russia’s might to return the tiny South Ossetian enclave to Georgian sovereignty, to free a few thousand Ossetians from Russian oppression, when he knew very well that they had no desire to be liberated? Or maybe we are to believe that Georgia’s President decided that the eve of the opening ceremony of the Olympics was the right time to test America’s, NATO’s and the rest of the international community’s readiness to jump to his defense and wage a war against Russia?
Of course not, these scenarios are all ridiculous.
Georgia’s President Michael Sahakashvilli was fully aware that Russia had tens of thousands of troops and hundreds of tanks waiting for his untimely onslaught and he knew very well that America, NATO and the rest of the international community would not join him in his unnecessary war. Sahakashvilli knew very well that his army would be quickly demolished and Russia’s leaders would watch him drop to his knees before asserting even greater stomping rights on both South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
So what was this slaughtering of thousands of innocent lives all about; simply to give Sahakashvilli prime time throughout the international media, to babble about the virtues of democracy, or maybe to start a new cold war between America and a rejuvenated Russian monster? No, of course not; like all other such unexpected surprises, for those in the know this was no surprise at all, just a carefully measured necessity for other more important events.
The losers are as always the common folk who for no fault of their own were blasted from their beds during the night of the 7th August, now mourning over the ones they have lost and trying to come to terms with their shattered lives. The more intriguing question is who are the winners; who stand to gain from this latest campaign in the Caucuses? Let us hope that the orchestrators behind this Sahakashvilli escapade have finished with their slaughter and will maybe concentrate more on improving, rather destroying the lives of those who somehow continually get caught in the cross-fire of their political shenanigans.
Then what exactly was Saakashvili's plan?
Կարեն Կարապետյան 13 weeks 6 days ago
...what interests me ultimately in this conflict is the question of geopolitical precedents, especially in the context of the qestion of Nagorno Karabakh. I still believe that Saakashvili made a terrible political gamble and blunder -- a pure mistake based on his ego and megalomania. He was a pawn in a bigger game of power. Yet Russia came in strong and set an important precedent, which says loud and clear that no matter how much weaponry Azerbaijan chooses to ammass, military solution to NKR under the pretext of "liberating the occupied territories" and "restoring the territorial integrity" will not fly easily with Russia.
This is why I must ask: if you think Saakashvili knew all these (as you claim), then what on earth was he thinking? What was his plan if not the rely on Western intervention?
How could he not have known?
Bruce Tasker 13 weeks 6 days ago
Garen,
Maybe you can explain how the President of Georgia, when he decided to attack Ossetia (I assume that is no longer in question), did not know what he was letting himself into, including that Russia was fully prepared and ready to respond.
You make two conflicting statements; firstly: "I still believe that Sahakashvilli made a terrible political gamble and blunder -- a pure mistake based on his ego and megalomania", and secondly: "He was a pawn in a bigger game of power". Or maybe you are suggesting that his blunder was that he did not know that he was a pawn in a bigger game of power - unlikely?
In my opinion the second is nearer the truth, he was a pawn in a bigger game of power (which he knew about), and that is the point of my argument.
With respect to karabakh, the repercussions, or consequences of this Sahakashvilli skirmish may mean the status-quo could change quite dramatically, and that will no doubt soon be seen. Indeed, I see that the Armenian Dashnaktsutsiun party is already suggesting that "Armenia should demand signing of a document on non-application of force against Nagorno Karabakh" http://www.today.az/news/politics/47013.html - which is interesting and not surprising.
With respect to who who are the winners, who stand to gain from this latest campaign in the Caucuses, I would suggest that putting Russia's gains aside, the failing U.S. Republican Presidential campaign will be given a significant boost, plus, I understand that the U.S. now has an inroad to get its forces (peacekeeping) based in Georgia.
from Little Empire to Little Democracy
Կարեն Կարապետյան 13 weeks 5 days ago
My two statements don't contradict each other. In fact, one follows the other.
I just wanted to see what your thoughts are on what was the actual plan of Saakashvili?
From what I see (and I may be just scratching the surface) is that Saakashvili got some signals of sympathy from the USA (like the recent trainings and war games), which he obviously interpreted wrongly, and which was his first political gamble. Then he seems to use the timing of the Olympics opening ceremony to launch an attack on Tskhinvali. I think this was his second gamble: that he would occupy South Ossetia for few days and celebrate the "reunification" of Georgia, and that Russian's wouldn't intervene immediately within hours and not at such an overwhelming scale. If everything went according to that plan, the Russians would start coming in a couple of days after the ceremony of "Reunification of the Little Empire", by which time he could cry wolf about an invasion of the a Little Democracy, which would give the West more pretext to act more decisively then Sarkozy's plan of "containment". And so we see a plan formulated by a megalomaniac adventurist politician - plan that would have worked if these 3 chances would align themselves simultaneously.
The plan itself is irresponsible to say the least. Of course Saakashvili knew that the Russians would come in, but not so quick and not at such a scale. So one must ask, if the above was not Saakashvili's plan, then, what was it? What was he thinking? What drove him into sparking this chain of events that resulted in such a disaster for his country, people and, soon, his political legacy.
But another, more burning, question is, can this style of Russian response in case of Abkhazia/South-Ossetia be regarded as a precedent to be used in cases of future Azeri military aggression against Artsakh?
From the way that I read these recent events, Saakashvili's actions have raised the stakes in Caucasus from mere regional issues or neighbourhood-politics to the level of Russo-Western antagonism. Everything in Caucasus will now be viewed in the context of Russia-NATO antagonism. And this makes it less likely that Russia is going to just let NKR slip away to Azerbaijan.
Saakashvili was a pet
Anonymous 13 weeks 5 days ago
Saakashvili was a pet project of NATO to see how far the Russians will go. Will they just 1)ship a couple of thousand Cossacks, N Ossetians and "volunteers" aka special forces or 2) really push the tanks and the airforce, or 3)ride down right through Tbilisi, arrest Saakashvili in connection of war crimes and cause a 2nd Georgian civil war?
Russians did the 2nd. This was not Yugoslavia for them this was right on their boarder. But getting to Tbilisi would be too costly and troublesome like the US march to Baghdad.
They will now work on the 3rd but through other means.
So let the cold war begin!
Americans shipping their army surplus, more construction tenders to favorite companies and some peacekeeping units.
While Russians, more weapon to Osetians and Abkhaz, ignite skirmishes between Georgian subgroups and minorities.
We saw this kind of scenarios in the past during the cold war all over the world: from Guatemala and Cuba to Congo and Angola to Afghanistan and Vietnam, the list is almost endless.
NKR slipping away to Azerbaijan
Bruce Tasker 13 weeks 5 days ago
I would tend to agree that these recent events have heightened the importance of the Caucuses region in general.
Despite recent misinformation that Bryza apparently said, Karabakh would have an internal referendum to determine its future after Armenia has returned the seven surrounding territories, which implies the chance of independence, Azerbaijan has always held the position that it will never give up NKR. That position has been supported by the international community, including as far as I know by Russia. Moreover, although Azerbaijan is the beneficiary of considerable foreign investment, especially by BP in the oil sector, my understanding is that its allegiances are closer to Russia than to the West, including NATO and the U.S.
Through the past few days, the U.S. has quickly consolidated its support to Georgia, and it has taken what I would suggest is a single-minded, over-aggressive and seemingly non-negotiable position with Russia. I would hazard a guess that, even if Russia immediately completes its withdrawal and stays out of Georgia, the U.S. will make sure we do not see the end of this for quite some time - certainly through November.
It is starting to look like the affair could soon become very messy, which of course will affect the entire Caucuses region.
Robert Gates, US Defense Secretary
Bruce Tasker 13 weeks 4 days ago
Friday, 14th August, Robert Gates, US Defense Secretary blamed lack of satellites for inadequate intelligence. The Associated press reported that Ariel Cohen, a research fellow in Russian and Eurasian studies at the Heritage Foundation, said that explanation was ludicrous, he alerted the Bush administration to Russia's preparations for war in Georgia more than two years ago.
Monday, 18th August, the CNN news channel, after having spent a week slamming Russia for attacking South Ossetia, suddenly switched positions and without even blinking an eye, surreptitiously backed down from the position that Russia started the conflict. But despite the US having backed Sahakashvilli's lies for a week, its support for Georgia continued to strengthen and its attitude toward Russia continued to become more hostile.
Sahakashvilli and the US knew very well what they were getting themselves into when they started this conflict - and yet they went ahead and killed hundreds of civilians, then quickly stepped back from the fighting, blaming Russia for the entire affair.
There is much more to this US-backed affair than would at first meet the eye.
$20 Billion U.S. Sweetener for Poland
Bruce Tasker 13 weeks 2 days ago
Today, 20th August, saw another benefit of the Georgian invasion of South Ossetia for the US, the signing of the missile defence system between the U.S. Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice and the Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski, in the presence of the Polish President Lech Kaczynski.
Kaczynski had earlier taken a pro-Georgian stance on the recent disruptions in Ossetia and urged NATO to give Tbilisi a clear road map to membership of the alliance.
Russian news reports that in return for agreeing to have this defence system on its territory, the U.S. has agreed to upgrade the Polish army at a cost of $20 Billion!
6-point Obama lead wiped out
Bruce Tasker 13 weeks 1 day ago
21st August - CNN poll of polls shows that after the Russian invasion of Georgia, now acknowledged to be in response to an initial attack by Georgia on South Ossetia, a 6-point Obama lead in the Presidential election polls has been wiped out.
John McCain rushed to Georgia to support his friend Michael Sahakashvilli, while Barrack Obama was off-guard on holiday in Hawaii.
CNN talks about the suggestion of a Billion dollar U.S. re-construction package for Georgia.
Azerbaijan will have to start military action against Armenians
Bruce Tasker 12 weeks 3 days ago
Garen,
Here is the answer to your question on how the South Ossetia situation might effect Karabakh:
"If Armenia, prompted by Russia, tries to recognize the so-called "independence" of the regime in Nagorno Karabakh, Azerbaijan should immediately start military actions against Armenia occupants".
http://www.today.az/news/politics/47204.html
Putin Blames the U.S.
Bruce Tasker 12 weeks 1 day ago
Vladimir Putin, in a 27th August interview with Matthew Chance, Senior Correspondent for CNN, stated quite clearly that the U.S. was behind the conflict in South Ossetia, claiming that it was to improve the rating of one of the political parties in the run-up to the November Presidential election.
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