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The list of former lieutenants who are rising to challenge President
Mikheil Saakashvili keeps growing in Georgia. Former Georgian prime
minister Zurab Noghaideli seems set to become the latest high-profile
politician to announce the establishment of an opposition party. The
chief motivation for Noghaideli's action appears to be Georgia's August
war with Russia, an event that he characterized as "a huge mistake."
Noghaideli, who served as both prime minister and finance minister
under Saakashvili, becomes the fourth former high-ranking Georgian
official to break with the administration. Among those preceding
Noghaideli in going into opposition against Saakashvili is former
parliamentary Speaker Nino Burjanadze, one of the leaders of the 2003
Rose Revolution. She left her post last spring over a disagreement with
the ruling United National Movement for a Victorious Georgia's party
lists for the May 2008 parliamentary elections. After keeping a low
profile for several months, she announced in September that she was
returning to politics. [For background see the Eurasia Insight
archive].
Other erstwhile Saakashvili allies turned enemies include former
foreign minister Salome Zourabichvili and defense minister Irakli
Okruashvili, whose departure from the administration in November 2006
arguably started a chain-reaction of instability in Georgia. [For
background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Once one of Saakashvili's closest associates, Okruashvili accused the
government of crimes ranging from corruption to murder when he
announced the formation of his "Movement for a United Georgia," last
September. Okruashvili is now living in France, but has indicated that
he intends to return to Georgia. [For background see the Eurasia
Insight archive].
Meanwhile, public defender Solzar Subari has also hinted that he may be
leaving office. In September, Subari set up the Public Movement for
Freedom and Justice, an association that unites key opposition figures
and non-governmental organizations.
Political scientist Koba Turmanidze argues that political figures are
moving to distance themselves from Saakashvili because they sense an
"opportunity," with popular support for Saakashvili weaker now than
before the war with Russia. [For background see the Eurasia Insight
archive].
Nana Sumbadze, the co-director of Tbilisi's Institute for Policy
Studies, noted that seasoned politicians like Noghaideli can sense that
Saakashvili's days in power could be numbered. "I think he is thinking
about his career," Sumbadze said, in reference to Noghaideli. "He sees
that there will be a change and he wants a place in this new
hierarchy."
Officially Noghaideli has not yet announced his return to politics.
Instead, the ex-prime minister says that he is "building up" a sense of
support before he clarifies his political ambitions and platform.
"I do not want to discuss plans. I am coming back to politics, yes, and
when it will be time to announce it, I will do it," he said in an
October 21 interview with EurasiaNet. "I am just building it up: I am
not looking for a particular situation and I am not . . . like the
Olympics . . . I am not interested in participation only."
Noghaideli, whom President Saakashvili removed as prime minister after
last year's November 7 protests, downplayed the notion that any special
"circumstance" in Georgia's political environment prompted his return
to politics nearly a year after his departure from government. [For
background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. However, he added that the
war forced him to give up his "comfortable life" as the chief executive
officer of Kala Group, a Georgian investment boutique financed by
soccer player Kakhi Kaladze.
"The one thing that has gotten me back into this business [is the
war]," he said. "That was such a huge mistake for our government to get
entrapped into this war. It is just unbelievable. I still can't believe
it has happened."
The former prime minister, who oversaw privatization and major economic
reforms during his two-year tenure in office, would not specify his
platform or particular political plans. He described the philosophic
outlook of his proto-party as "right-wing liberal." Noghaideli said
that he plans to cooperate, but not to "couple" with former colleagues
such as Burjanadze.
The Institute of Policy Studies' Sumbadze, however, contends that
Noghaideli poses a relatively small political threat to Saakashvili.
Better known as a numbers-cruncher than as a charismatic politician,
Noghaideli, Sumbadze said, is not particularly popular among Georgians.
"I think he is only a sign that the Saakashvili regime is weakening,"
she said. "I don't think the opposition will be stronger with
Noghaideli."
Here's the New York Time's take on the Georgia opposition
Ani 10 weeks 3 days ago
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/25/world/europe/25georgia.html
This snip is cautionary for Armenia as well as Georgia:
[...]
Ms. Burdzhanadze’s handling of Nov. 7 will reveal much about her political future. Her loyalty to the government during the protests last year hurt her credibility as an opposition leader...
[...]
She decided not to run for re-election as Parliament speaker this spring, citing differences with the ruling party. But she is more outspoken now, and she has the advantage of an insider’s perspective of the government. She says it became stuck in a “revolutionary style of ruling,” autocratic and dismissive of dissenting views.
“That very absence of alternative opinion made you think that only a few people know what is right for the country,” she wrote in an open letter to Mr. Saakashvili, printed Friday in the local newspaper Rezonansi.
In an interview, she said Mr. Saakashvili has allowed citizens to believe Russia will eventually withdraw from the separatist enclaves, which she called “a very dangerous game.”
“Tomorrow, or the day after tomorrow, these people will understand that the government was defeated, and we are in a worse situation than we were before. These people,” she said, “will understand that the government was lying. It will create serious disappointment, serious mistrust of the government.”
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