khosq.com

Well, well, well ... just when Armenians show signals of willingness to settle for peace, Azeris go on an offensive again. So how do they expect Armenians to carry on with peace process in light of this renewed offensive?

The way that I see it, this statement by Aliev is an example of "keeping the pressure". But it's no more than a bluf. And instead of taking the bate and succumbing to pressure as Serzh Sargsyan has been doing, Armenian leadership (or opposition) need to reply in kind so as to catch their bluf:
"The systematic racism and anti-Armenianism that is being cooked up by Azeri propaganda machine from the highest echelons of Azeri government, coupled with their increasing militarization and repeated violation of Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe is now endangering the regional peace like never before. Let us remind the international community that it was the Azeris and not the Armenians who were the aggressors. Just because Artsakh Armenians managed to stand up and repel the Azeri fascist aggression and grind their military into the ground in early 1990s, doesn't suddenly make Azerbaijan into a victim and Armenia into an aggressor. Let us also remind the world that hundreds of thousands of Armenian fled their homelands following the Azeri aggression. Let us remind the world that State-ordered destruction of ancient Armenian cultural monuments is still taking place in Azerbaijan to this day. Let us also remind the world that Shaumyan region is still under the occupation of Azerbayjan's racist regime. Over the years the Armenian government has welcomed peace talks despite the fact that Azerbaijan is one of the world's most un-democratic, tyrannical and despotic regimes, which many self-respecting governments wouldn't even consider negotiating with if not for the oil reserves that happened to be in their territory. Yet when our sincere attempts at peace are met with acts of diplomatic offensive of this kind, it makes us question and rethink whether Azerbaijan is indeed truly prepared for peace. We are fully committed to peace, peace talks and peace process. If this conflict can be resolved, it can only be done through peaceful negotiations within the atmosphere of mutual respect and with Artsakh represented around the negotiation table both as a concerned party and as a primary participant of the conflict in 1990s. Yet if Azerbaijan's Regime is unable to commit itself to the elementary etiquette of diplomatic negotiations, that will only lead to escalations. And this time too Azerbaijan will be the looser"

"If your opponent is quick to anger, seek to irritate him" -- Sun Tzu 'The Art of War'

The bottom-line is that Aliev's words are no more than a bluff -- they can only be as hyped up bubble, proportional to the bubble of oil prices. When the latter bubble bursts, as it already does, all that Aliev can do is bluf. Azeri oil reserves are running out very soon. So he cannot afford to go to war as he needs investment for the deep-see exploration and no sane investor will consider investing billions into a regime that finds itself in the midst of a war with uncertain outcome. What's more, is that with the suddenly collapsing oil prices (which might not recover anytime soon), Azerbaijan simply cannot afford to go to war! In fact, they will be struggling with meeting the 2009 budget.

What bothers me though, is that nobody in contemporary leadership or opposition seems to be willing to respond in kind with a strong statement so as to catch Aliev's bluff. Instead, they seem to take the bate and succumb to the pressure...