khosq.com

Decision time for
Armenia’s President Sargsyan; sign on to the Karabakh agreement and face
domestic turmoil, or not sign and sacrifice the benefits needed to avoid a
complete economic collapse. To add to his difficulties, Azerbaijan and Turkey
have joined forces and are encouraging Sargsyan to accept Turkey’s long-awaited
‘Independent Commission’ to study Genocide. Agreeing to that will put an end to
Armenia’s claims of Genocide, but give him the most beneficial ‘Karabakh
Deal’.

Kocharian is the
architect of the Karabakh deal, a scheduled component of his fabricated economic
boom and necessary to avoid a total economic collapse. He gave up his driving
seat to Sargsyan on the understanding his successor would complete the deal he
knew better not to sign. Sargsyan has since been struggling to cope with the
many twists and turns in the road, not at all confident that Kocharian as his
navigator would not prefer to see him end up in the ditch.

Sargsyan entered his
presidential campaign with confidence and declared: "It is important that
Armenia recognize territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and that Azerbaijan
recognizes the right of Nagorno-Karabakh residents for
self-determination" He added that in such case
the President will be able to say to his voters: "You have voted for my program
and I must implement it". He was of course aware of the ‘Madrid Principles’,
which had just been signed by his predecessor, one of a number of such documents
which acknowledged Azerbaijani sovereignty of Karabakh and the surrounding
territories, but which did not provide for
self-determination.

Sargsyan emerged
victorious but less confident from his Kocharian enforced Presidency, and
talking about Karabakh he said: “Azerbaijan
must understand the simple reality that the existence of the Republic of
Nagorno-Karabakh's independence is irreversible". He added “It is
impossible to even imagine that the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh could be
subordinate in any way to Azerbaijan" - “If no other means remain,
Armenia will recognize the independence of Nagorno Karabakh”. Since
then, he and his Minister of Foreign Affairs, Eduard Nalbandian, have insisted
the future of Karabakh will be determined through an internal referendum, in
accordance with guidelines laid down in the ‘Madrid Principles’. Today, under
increasing domestic pressure, Sargsyan attempts to reassert his commitment to
Karabakhi ‘Self-Determination’ and in a press office statement he said: “Azerbaijan must recognize the
exercise of the Nagorno Karabakh population's right of
self-determination”. To clarify the seemingly clear but purposefully
ambiguous Sargsyan statement, Matthew Bryza eventually revealed the truth: "The Issue of Referendum
can be Reviewed after the Liberation of Azerbaijani Regions from the [Armenian]
Occupation and Deployment of Peacekeepers in the Territory".

Throughout Kocharian’s
ten year Presidency and to this day, none of the Karabakh resolutions have
guaranteed the right of Nagorno-Karabakh residents for self-determination, and
according to the ‘Madrid Principles’, should a referendum ever take place the
people of Karabakh might not even be included. However, in 1998 LTP agreed with
Azerbaijan that Karabakh would have full autonomy, which would have given
Nagorno-Karabakh residents self-determination. Kocharian considered the plan was
unacceptable and ousted LTP. As Armenia’s new President Kocharian secretly
negotiated the swap of Armenia’s southern border region for Karabakh, with a
multi-billion dollar reward from Azerbaijan for his services. Kocharian’s ‘Goble
Plan’ was exposed and eventually quashed at a Key West meeting in 2002.
Throughout the following years, Armenia’s position with Karabakh continued to
deteriorate, recently aggravated further by the conflict in
Georgia.

Sargsyan was given the
Presidency in February 2008 on the promise he would sign the Karabakh agreement
which Kocharian had planned and prepared for, but which he shrewdly avoided. The
Minsk Group and the international community then closed their eyes to a string
of Kocharian / Sargsyan atrocities, based on the incoming President’s commitment
to sign on to Karabakh. That led to frantic meetings and more
promises, in Baku, Ankara, St. Petersburg, Sochi, Moscow, Brussels,
Stockholm, and finally in Washington. The Georgian conflict introduced a new
urgency, Russia applied the pressure, Turkey and Azerbaijan strengthened their
alliance, and the Armenian regime was left with no option but to finally reach
agreement on whatever resolution they could salvage.

At home, the regime was
flip-flopping from one position to another, on Karabakh and with respect to the
even more sensitive ‘sell-out’ of Genocide. In September this year, following
President Gul’s attendance to the infamous 6th September game of
football in Yerevan, the Turkish press reported a diplomatic source as
saying Armenia was to announce the establishment of a Joint Committee of Historians to study the events of
1915. The report followed a
Turkish press refutation of an untrue announcement by Armenia’s Minister of
Energy, that during President Gul’s trip to Armenia, Turkey
had signed an agreement to buy Armenian electricity. Sargsyan later
stepped back from the ‘Genocide Commission’ by saying: first, let our joint
border be opened and diplomatic relations constituted, “then
we can establish commissions, sub-commissions and sub-sub-commissions for any
issue". Sargsyan later said the formation of a commission to investigate
the Armenian Genocide is unnecessary and refers to an “Intergovernmental
Process”, which can be established later.

These are classic
examples of Armenian regime tactics to deceive; the very way in which through
the past ten years it has stolen billions of dollars worth of state assets, as
exposed and reported to the Armenian Parliamentary Commission of 2004, and
through the subsequent and ongoing ‘Blowing the World Bank
Whistle’ action in Washington.

Sargsyan’s latest
statement: “Azerbaijan must recognize the exercise of the Nagorno Karabakh
population's right of self-determination”, does not refer to
“self-determination”, it refers to the “exercise of recognizing
Self-Determination”. That exercise could start at any
time in the future and could last for many years, (in accordance with Bryza’s
latest statements) and it might conclude that the Nagorno Karabakh
population will not have ‘Self-Determination’ (in accordance with Azerbaijan’s
repeated statements). Statements on the Genocide commission follow
exactly the same deceptive pattern.

Contrary to the
misleading rhetoric, Armenia’s regime is moving on with its ‘Sell-Out’ of
Karabakh and with establishing the ‘Genocide Commission’, under pressure from
Azerbaijan and Turkey, who have joined forces to resolve these two frustrating
and long outstanding issues, and from the long list of international powers
which are waiting for Serzh Sargsyan to stand by his many pre and post
Presidential promises to quickly sign on to a resolution. The alternative will
be more isolation for Armenia, a totally collapsed Armenian economy and the
Kocharian / Sargsyan regime falling back on their only remaining option - to
provoke Azerbaijan into an unnecessary war over Karabakh, a war which Armenia
will not win, but which will save their illegitimate regime.